The Republican Obama Effect

I read an interesting article today Whatever happened to the Black Republican Wave:

This was supposed to be ''the year of the black Republican.'' Google the phrase and you'll get more than 20,000 results, most of them ending with a question mark. Prompted largely by a May 10 New York Times article, ''Black Hopefuls Pick This Year in GOP Races,'' media outlets pounced on the Great African-American Republican Narrative of 2010. Chock-full of Tea Parties and history (''the most black GOP candidates since Reconstruction''), the story was not only eminently discussable, it was also a perfect platform on which to stack another favorite talking point: the Obama effect. Despite very different political views, black Republicans were inspired by Barack Obama's victory and were now throwing their own black hats into the ring.

Conservatives, especially, welcomed the news, heralding more than 30 black Republicans running for Congress as proof that the right isn't racist. ''[This] shows that conservatives have no barriers to entry except on policy and philosophy,'' wrote Ed Morrissey on Hot Air.

But then came the primaries. In Alabama, Les Phillip, who made waves with ads saying President Obama ''played with terrorists,'' got crushed by both his white opponents. Even white incumbent Parker Griffith, a former Democrat who switched parties last year, beat Phillip by 17 points. Baptist minister Jerry Grimes lost in North Carolina's 1st district, and Lou Huddleston, who won a Cumberland County North Carolina Republican Party straw poll in February, got walloped in the 8th district. Despite his years of service as an aide to Colin Powell, Huddleston proved no match for Tim D'Annunzio, a businessman who raised money with ''machine gun socials.'' (For $25, supporters got a plate of barbecue and the opportunity to shoot an Uzi.) In Mississippi, Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan, endorsed by none other than the Sarah Palin, lost to both her competitors, catching only 15 percent of the vote.

There are still dozens more primary elections to come, but, so far, it seems voters in the South are less excited than the news media about 2010's crop of black conservative candidates.

In South Carolina - of all places - there is a Republican candidate for the first that is African American, Tim Scott. So far, he hasn't faced the race baiting his fellow candidate Nikki Haley has. The polling, while sparce has him ahead. But will the polling pan out? Despite high flying endorsements from groups like the club for growth and the scandal ridden head of the minuteman, Jim Gilchrist, can Scott pull ahead of the scions of two of South Carolina's leading political families - the Campbells and the Thurmonds? Even without such well knowns, the race is crowded (9 total are running). For Scott then perhaps it's just a matter of surviving to the eventual run off. And more importantly can he over come what has thus far proven to be a Bradley Effect on the right? We'll find out tomorrow.

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As a side note, it's interesting to see the final campaign finance reporting as it shows Tim Scott for congress having paid $5450 to The Mace Group LLC for website and "messaging." The Mace Group also operates and maintains Will Folks outfit -- FITSNews who has been very supportive of Scott's Campaign and published many reports on Scott. But just to show you how incestuous and byzantine SC politics are -- Scott also hired Starboard Communications owned by Walter Whetsell, a direct competitor of the proprietor of FITSNews.

Jake Knotts, Nikki Haley and the peril of SC Politics

Ben Smith earlier today noted an article by CBN's David Brody regarding the religion of Republican Gubernatorial front runner Nikki Haley. Those questions and the underlying implications were magnified this evening by what I witnessed at this evenings broadcast of Pub Politics.

[For the record Pub Politics had "technical issues".... with their sound/p.a. equipment, at the bar. so that will probably translate into their not posting the what was web streamed.]

If you don't know, it was tweeted, retweeted and subsequently is already on CNN. I was there, he then reiterated directly to me, and Corey Hutchins of the Free Times among other folks. Sen. Jake Knotts said (paraphrasing) we've already got a rag head in the white house we don't need one in the Governor's mansion. Because in my mind rag head is an unpleasant, derogatory stereotype that - post 9/11 - was used in reference to Arabs and Muslims - I asked him to clarify, did he mean Sen. Sheheen, Vincent is of Lebanese Catholic heritage and is the democratic front runner or Nikki Haley - the Republican front runner who was born and reared a Sikh of Indian origin who is his natural antagonist.

Without reservation he said he was not referencing his colleague Mr. Sheheen, but was in fact talking about Nikki Haley. To paraphrase and not use Sen. Knotts colourful language he went on to say that her father owned the local Sikh temple and imply that she was possibly receiving funds from extra-national sources, and on and on and so forth. At this point most of my companions at the table were light headed with disbelief at what we were hearing but came to reality when we realized it was Jake Knotts, and when he himself reminded us that he didn't give a damn he tells the truth and what he believes, which is pure Jakie -- he does speak his mind.

I ordered another beer and watched as Corey cornered Jake furiously typing on the qwerty keypad on his phone, while Wes Donehue was trying - unsuccessfully - to dissuade the Senator from speaking with the local reporter. I imagine the Free Times will have something up soon with the treasure trove of quotes that Hutchins received from the free wheeling Senator.

What followed was a flurry of phone calls by operatives on both sides of the aisle and the reactions, and denouncements that the national media have already picked up. Ah South Carolina Politics -- what a swamp.

Nikki Haley and Will Folks' affair, another example of sex crazy SC Politics

Talk about a shot, literally, heard around the world. It was barely any time after Will Folks issued a statement this morning acknowledging an "inappropriate physical relationship" with Republican legislator and gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley before it was picked up by many outlets, first local, and then regional and finally national with various ideological commentary along the way from both the left and especially the right.

Of course, Will Folks being Will Folks -- his outfit is keeping track of it.

So far the most even keeled analysis is from Michael Dougherty writing for The American Conservative:

South Carolina gubernatorial candidate, Nikki Haley probably had an affair with political blogger, gadfly, and operative Will Folks – who is a one man clearinghouse for Palmetto state rumors. Folksposted this morning that he once had an “inappropriate physical relationship” with the very attractive, and recently-favored Haley. Haley denies it.

I’m told that the affair occurred in 2008 when Folks was working with Haley on her Congressional re-election campaign. Haley was married at the time.

Folks is a former spokesman for Gov. Mark Sanford who left after several personal fights and wild political scandals. (He was a useful source in my profile of Gov. Sanford last year.) His reputation since leaving the governor’s office has only increased. He has become South Carolina’s essential political blogger.

In fact, Folks is like the Anna Wintour of South Carolina politics, generally unknown to the larger public, but within the right circles, revered and feared. He is so plugged-in that most political stories in South Carolina appear on his blog before they make the daily papers. I believe he remains a confidential source of advice and comment for Governor Sanford.

At first, I thought that Folks may be pulling his largest stunt ever. Just knowing his character, I believed that he was parodying the style of “affair disclosures.” Also, there is the timing; the primary will be June 8. But I now believe, after speaking with a few South Carolina sources, that Folks had a lawyer go over these words and that he feels genuinely threatened.

After alleging that there is a conspiracy to take down Haley and himself through a by a thousand political cuts, Folks justifies the disclosure by saying, “I refuse to have someone hold the political equivalent of a switch-blade in front of my face and just sit there and watch as they cut me to pieces.” That sounds like Folks.

In judging the veracity of Folks’ admission, it should be noted that Columbia, South Carolina is one of the most treacherous, gossiping, and self-obsessed political capitals on earth. Everyone there talks, and whispers about an affair between Haley and Folks are nearly a year old at this point. Political consultants were wondering two years ago why Haley’s car was so often seen in front of Folks’ home.

Corey Hutchins, a whip-smart, and well-sourced reporter for the Columbia-based alt-weekly, Free Times, reports that Folks admitted to the affair almost a year ago. If true, this would put to rest the defense that these rumors are only coming out because the primary is in two weeks. The AP, the Free Press and other South Carolina sources have been working on this story for over a month, apparently badgering Folks.

Some have speculated that, despite his prior support and work for Haley, Folks is acting out against her social conservatism and her association with Jenny Sanford, whom Folks has battled with since the early days of Gov. Sanford’s first gubernatorial campaign.

That part is true. Folks isn’t exactly Palinesque on the social issues. He writes on his site: “On social issues, we are primarily libertarians but readily admit that Aaron Sorkin and Annie Savoy have corrupted our good girl, Calvinist upbringings.” But there are good reasons to believe his prior (and continuing) support of her candidacy isn’t fake.

Despite his differences with Jenny (and Mark) Sanford, if the Sanford’s are behind a candidate, Folks probably is too. He is a fiscally conservative, and libertarian leaning the type that is coming out to support Haley all cycle. He has worked with her before. And so it is hard not to take this morning’s admission as anything other than genuine.

If this turns out to be true, and I think it will, the affair will be a black mark not only on Haley’s promising campaign, but on Jenny Sanford who is about to launch a book-tour, and Sarah Palin who seems determined to go to the mat for Haley. Unless I’m mistaken it would also be one of the first great adultery scandals for a female politician in the United States.

Mr. Dougherty describes the nature of Columbia to a tee, and to really understand it you have to know how incredibly incestuous and internecine the political class is. When folks recognize and call this entire situation Byzantine, it's really an understatement. In South Carolina even an admission of "truth" by a person as deep in it as Folks has been met with further rumormongering and spin.

For example, by late afternoon a common trope in political circles, that was whispered at the onset this morning, is that Folks was paid off by one of his competitor consultants, Haley even said as much in an interview given this afternoon on WVOC - a right wing radio station in Columbia.

These allegations are just yet another in a string of embarrassments for South Carolina politicians.

It all started with the fall from grace of Governor Mark Sanford, from there it's spiraled out of control.

First we had the Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer proffering up a preemptive defense against the perennial rumors that he's gay, while not addressing the other rumors that he's generally just creepy when he's gawking over the bevy of extremely young women who keep him company in most non business public settings, although I suppose they go hand in hand.

Then there was the romantic imbroglio between Comptroller General Richard Eckstrom and Republican candidate for State Superintendent of Education Kelly Payne.

This was followed up by essentially an oppo-dump by Wes Wolfe on Republican candidate for State Treasurer Curtis Loftis that included storming public court records and accusations of homosexuality and herpes.

Then there was Lindsey Graham being told to "come out" by Tea Party activists rallying against his moderate position on Immigration Reform.

And flying under the radar, being overshadowed by the current scandal, are the rumors that Will Folks posted concerning Republican gubernatorial candidate, and Haley opponent, Gresham Barrett and alleged improprieties he had with a staffer.

And we're not even past the primaries yet....

Common Ground with the Rushbo

During the Presidential campaign of '08 I discovered something about John McCain - he too is an ABBA fan. As it happens I have something in fan with Rushbo. It turns out Rush Limbaugh is also a fan of the Gaga. (See him dance to Poker Face!) Music really does offer a chance for finding common ground after all.

Or maybe it's just a Bad Romance.

As always Waldo sums it up just right

My old blog friend Waldo Lydecker summed up the oppositional response to last night's SOTU. In his acerbic, yet witty way - he managed to show exactly what's wrong with the Grand Old Party (emphasis on OLD).